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}
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Apesar da terceira baixa seguida, mediana de IPCA 2025 fica acima do teto da meta, diz Focus 694x51
Agronegócio 29i2b Apesar da terceira baixa seguida, mediana de IPCA 2025 fica acima do teto da meta, diz Focus 694x51 Publicado
3 semanas ago on
05/05/2025
A mediana do relatório Focus para o IPCA de 2025 ou de 5,55% para 5,53%, a terceira baixa seguida. Agora, está 1,03 ponto porcentual acima do teto da meta, de 4,50%. Considerando apenas as 112 estimativas atualizadas nos últimos cinco dias úteis, a medida ou de 5,52% para 5,51%.
A projeção para o IPCA de 2026 se manteve em 4,51%, ainda ultraando o teto da meta. Considerando apenas as 109 estimativas atualizadas nos últimos cinco dias úteis, oscilou de 4,50% para 4,52%.
O Banco Central
O colegiado já aumentou a taxa Selic em 3,75 pontos porcentuais desde setembro, para 14,25%, incluindo uma rápida elevação de 3 pontos entre dezembro e março. Na ata da sua última reunião, do dia 19, o Copom indicou que deve elevar os juros novamente em maio, embora com uma alta inferior a 1 ponto porcentual. Nova reunião ocorre nesta semana.
A partir deste ano, a meta de inflação é contínua, com base no IPCA acumulado em 12 meses. O centro é de 3%, com tolerância de 1,5 ponto porcentual para mais ou para menos. Se o IPCA ficar fora desse intervalo por seis meses consecutivos, considera-se que o BC perdeu o alvo.
A mediana do Focus para a inflação de 2027 permaneceu em 4,0% pela 11ª semana consecutiva. A projeção para o IPCA de 2028 ou de 3,78% para 3,80%. Um mês antes, estava em 3,78%.
Projeção de alta do PIB de 2025 segue em 2%, diz relatório Focus 6s64 A mediana do relatório Focus para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro em 2025 se manteve em 2,0%. Um mês antes, era de 1,97%. Considerando apenas as 71 projeções atualizadas nos últimos cinco dias úteis, mais sensíveis a novidades, também seguiu em 2,00%.
No mais recente Relatório de Política Monetária (RPM), o Banco Central diminuiu a sua projeção de crescimento do PIB em 2025, de 2,1% para 1,9%. Segundo a autarquia, a revisão é consistente com a perspectiva de moderação do crescimento, devido à política monetária contracionista mas a incerteza sobre a estimativa aumentou.
A estimativa intermediária do Focus para o crescimento da economia brasileira em 2026 também se manteve em 1,70%. Considerando só as 69 projeções atualizadas nos últimos cinco dias úteis, ficou em 1,70%.
A mediana para o crescimento do PIB de 2027 permaneceu em 2,0% pela quinta semana seguida. A estimativa intermediária para 2028 ficou estável em 2,0% pela 60ª semana seguida.
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