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}
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Exportações de soja registram queda nos dois primeiros meses do ano 5c3t1w
Agronegócio 29i2b Exportações de soja registram queda nos dois primeiros meses do ano 5c3t1w Publicado
3 meses ago on
25/02/2025
Fonte: Ivan Bueno/APPA O mercado da soja segue em um momento de incerteza e espera pela definição da safra no Brasil e na Argentina, dois dos maiores produtores do grão. Nos primeiros dois meses de 2025, a exportação da soja registrou uma queda, com quase metade do volume exportado no mesmo período de 2024, conforme os dados da Secretaria de Comércio Exterior.
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Com base na série histórica de exportações nos últimos cinco anos, nota-se uma redução nas exportações de soja do Brasil em 2025. Enquanto em 2024 o país exportou mais de 8 milhões de toneladas nos primeiros dois meses, em 2025, esse número está em torno de 4.8 milhões de toneladas, o que representa uma queda de quase 50%.
O cenário indica que o mercado está travado, com produtores aguardando um movimento mais positivo nos preços. O mercado de Chicago, com suas oscilações constantes, também influencia essa dinâmica, apresentando uma tendência de queda nos preços da soja.
Farelo de soja 3ek6r Embora as exportações de soja estejam em declínio, o farelo de soja tem mostrado um desempenho mais estável. Nos primeiros meses de 2025, o Brasil exportou cerca de 3 milhões de toneladas de farelo, uma leve queda em comparação com o mesmo período de 2024. A expectativa é que as exportações de farelo fiquem praticamente estáveis no primeiro bimestre de 2025, sem grandes variações em relação ao ano anterior.
Óleo de soja 4x1u4a O óleo de soja se destaca como o único produto que registrou crescimento nas exportações. Nos primeiros dois meses de 2025, as exportações de óleo de soja superaram as 200 mil toneladas, mais do que o dobro do volume registrado no mesmo período de 2024. A principal razão para esse crescimento é a alta demanda por óleo de soja, especialmente para a produção de biodiesel, tanto no mercado interno quanto no mercado externo, com destaque para a Europa.
A recuperação da agroindústria brasileira, que se ajusta para atender essa demanda crescente, também tem impulsionado as exportações. Contudo, as exportações estão longe dos recordes de 2022, quando o Brasil exportou 2.6 milhões de toneladas.
Expectativa 4f4c41 Apesar da queda nas exportações nos primeiros meses de 2025, as expectativas para o ano permanecem otimistas. A previsão é que o Brasil exporte cerca de 110 milhões de toneladas de soja em 2025, superando as 98.6 milhões de toneladas exportadas em 2024.
Esse aumento é impulsionado pela estimativa de uma safra maior, com projeções variando entre 165 e 170 milhões de toneladas, comparadas aos 147 milhões de toneladas do ano ado. A expectativa é que o Brasil tenha um excedente de grãos disponível para exportação, o que pode ajudar a impulsionar as vendas externas ao longo do ano.
Desafios da soja 443u1 Apesar das expectativas de crescimento, o mercado da soja ainda enfrenta desafios consideráveis. A oscilação do preço do grão em Chicago, que está em queda, juntamente com as flutuações cambiais, tem gerado incertezas para os produtores. A previsão é de que os preços da soja flutuem entre 10,50 e 10,60 por bushel nos próximos meses, o que pode influenciar a decisão de exportação dos produtores.
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