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}
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Notícias e Podcasts 1e3x6n
Soja retoma fôlego em Chicago: menos tensão comercial, mais reação do mercado 3s25v
Agronegócio 29i2b Soja retoma fôlego em Chicago: menos tensão comercial, mais reação do mercado 3s25v Publicado
1 mês ago on
12/04/2025
A semana foi marcada por uma recuperação expressiva nos preços da soja no mercado internacional. Depois de semanas de instabilidade causadas pela guerra comercial deflagrada pelo governo dos Estados Unidos, o saldo se mostrou positivo.
Fique por dentro das novidades e notícias recentes sobre a soja! Participe da nossa comunidade através do link! 🌱 Segundo a consultoria Safras & Mercado, um movimento de compras ganhou força e garantiu uma reversão técnica em Chicago, com ganhos acumulados de cerca de 5% até a manhã desta sexta-feira, após os contratos atingirem os menores patamares em quatro meses.
A reviravolta foi impulsionada por uma decisão do presidente norte-americano, Donald Trump, de suspender por 90 dias a vigência de tarifas, com exceção da China. A medida reduziu a aversão ao risco entre os investidores e trouxe alívio, especialmente nas commodities agrícolas, após a União Europeia também ter recuado nas retaliações comerciais.
No entanto, Trump intensificou as medidas contra a China, elevando tarifas para 145%. Em contrapartida, Pequim anunciou tarifas de 125% sobre produtos norte-americanos. O embate acirrado levanta preocupações quanto à possível migração da demanda chinesa para a América do Sul, especialmente no segundo semestre.
USDA 1k4e12 Além do fator geopolítico, o relatório de abril do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA) também influenciou o mercado. Segundo o órgão, a safra norte-americana de soja em 2024/25 deve alcançar 4,366 bilhões de bushels (118,82 milhões de toneladas), com produtividade estimada em 50,7 bushels por acre – números que se mantêm iguais aos divulgados em fevereiro.
Os estoques finais foram projetados em 375 milhões de bushels (10,2 milhões de toneladas), levemente abaixo da expectativa do mercado, que era de 381 milhões. O USDA também elevou a estimativa de esmagamento de 2,410 para 2,420 bilhões de bushels. Já as exportações permanecem previstas em 1,825 bilhão de bushels.
Safra de soja 5u5v6o A safra mundial de soja em 2024/25 foi revisada para 420,58 milhões de toneladas, um leve recuo frente aos 420,76 milhões de março. Para o ciclo 2023/24, a estimativa segue em 396,4 milhões de toneladas. Os estoques globais finais foram projetados em 122,47 milhões de toneladas – acima da expectativa do mercado, mas ainda dentro do intervalo previsto.
No cenário sul-americano, o USDA revisou para cima a estimativa de produção brasileira para 2023/24, ando de 153 milhões para 154,5 milhões de toneladas. Para 2024/25, o número foi mantido em 169 milhões. No caso da Argentina, as previsões seguem estáveis: 48,21 milhões de toneladas para 2023/24 e 49 milhões para 2024/25.
Importações da China 5d582k Por fim, as importações chinesas também não sofreram alterações. A previsão para 2023/24 continua em 112 milhões de toneladas, enquanto para 2024/25 o número permanece em 109 milhões.
Fonte: webtvparacatu-br.informativomineiro.com
