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}
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Saca do milho continuará acima de R$ 80 na B3? Plataforma responde 72n2p
Agronegócio 29i2b Saca do milho continuará acima de R$ 80 na B3? Plataforma responde 72n2p Publicado
4 meses ago on
17/02/2025
Foto: Sistema Famasul O relatório de fevereiro do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA) indicou que os estoques globais de milho caíram para 290,31 milhões de toneladas, redução de 3,03 milhões de toneladas ante a previsão de janeiro.
A produção global do cereal foi indicada em 1,212 bilhão, redução de duas milhões de toneladas motivada pelos cortes no Brasil e na Argentina que, agora, devem somar 126 e 50 milhões de toneladas, respectivamente.
O cenário de escassez global do grão tem trazido demanda para o mercado brasileiro, que registrou aumento de 10,7% nas exportações em relação ao mesmo período de 2024, podendo chegar próximo de 2 milhões de toneladas embarcadas em fevereiro, conforme dados da Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex).
Já o plantio do milho avançou significativamente entre os dias 9 e 15 de fevereiro. Assim, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab)
A respeito dos preços, em Chicago, o cereal encerrou a semana cotado a US$ 4,96 por bushel, com alta de 1,85%. No Brasil, na B3, o contrato de milho para março de 2025 registrou alta significativa de 3,42%, encerrando a R$ 80,77 por saca.
Acompanhando esse movimento, no mercado físico, os patamares também foram positivos, trazendo melhores condições de negociação para os produtores.
E agora, o que esperar do milho na semana? 706o68 Análise da plataforma Grão Direto
Desafios e oportunidades da segunda safra brasileira: o USDA estima a produção de milho do Brasil em 2024/25 em 126 milhões de toneladas, com cerca de 70% desse volume vindo da segunda safra. O consumo doméstico está estimado em 87,5 milhões de toneladas, enquanto as exportações devem alcançar 46 milhões de toneladas. Além disso, os estoques finais devem ficar em torno de 2,84 milhões de toneladas, resultando em um déficit aproximado de 5 milhões de toneladas. “Essa análise considera uma safra cheia, mas o atraso no plantio representa um risco, podendo, por outro lado, gerar boas oportunidades para os produtores brasileiros”, diz a Grão Direto.Desenvolvimento da safra Argentina: assim como na soja, as condições de desenvolvimento da safra de milho na Argentina seguem preocupantes. Semana após semana, a qualidade das lavouras tem se deteriorado devido à falta de chuvas e ao excesso de calor. A Bolsa de Cereales reportou uma queda de 3% nas lavouras classificadas como boas ou excelentes, ficando abaixo dos 31% registrados no mesmo período do ano ado. “Os próximos dias serão decisivos, especialmente para as lavouras tardias que estão em fase de floração. Se as condições climáticas não melhorarem, novos cortes nas previsões de produção poderão ocorrer, agravando ainda mais a situação do país.”Exportações norte-americanas aquecidas: o Relatório de Vendas de Exportação indicou que, na semana encerrada em 6 de fevereiro, as vendas líquidas de milho atingiram aproximadamente 1,65 milhão de toneladas para o ano de comercialização atual e cerca de 350 mil toneladas para 2026, somando um total de 2 milhões de toneladas. As vendas acumuladas representaram 74,6% da previsão do USDA para a safra 2024/2025, superando a média dos últimos cinco anos, que é de 66,7%. “Para atingir a previsão do USDA, será necessário manter uma média de 537 mil toneladas embarcadas por semana nas próximas semanas, o que nesse cenário é bastante provável de acontecer.”Para a Grão Direto, diante do cenário traçado acima, as cotações do milho podem continuar a ser impulsionadas, com as cotações permanecendo acima de R$ 80 por saca na B3.
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